If you have been tracking mortgage rates hoping for a reprieve, the latest ANZ adjustment in August 2026 probably caught your attention. With the bank nudging short-term fixed rates up by 10 to 20 basis points, many borrowers are asking where things stand now and where they are heading.

4 related posts

ANZ 1-year fixed special rate: 4.99% p.a. ·
ANZ 2-year fixed featured rate: 6.29% p.a. ·
ANZ standard variable rate discount: 1.20% p.a. (LVR ≤80%) ·
Recent rate change (6-month fixed): +10 bps to 4.79% (Aug 2026) ·
BNZ 1-year fixed rate (for comparison): 5.39% p.a.

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
  • ANZ 1-year special fixed rate: 4.99% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom)
  • ANZ 2-year special fixed rate: 5.49% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom) (ANZ Newsroom)
  • Standard variable index rate: 8.64% p.a. (Australia, May 2026) (ANZ Australia)
2What’s unclear
  • Whether mortgage rates will drop to 3% again
  • Exact date of next ANZ rate change
  • Whether 2-year or 5-year fixed is better – depends on personal risk tolerance
3Timeline signal
  • Aug 2026: ANZ raised 6-month to 1-year fixed rates by 10-20 bps (ANZ Newsroom)
  • 2020-2021: rates hit historic lows near 3%
  • 2022-2024: sharp rise due to inflation and OCR hikes
4What’s next
  • ANZ economists forecast OCR to reach 3% by end of 2026 (Interest.co.nz)
  • 1-year mortgage rate projected at 5.2% by Dec 2026 (Opes Partners)
  • House price inflation forecast revised down to 2% for 2026 (ANZ Economics)

Five current rates, one pattern: ANZ’s August 2026 increase pushed short-term fixed rates higher while keeping longer terms relatively stable, creating a flatter yield curve than earlier in the year.

Metric Value Source
ANZ 1-year special rate 4.99% p.a. ANZ Newsroom
ANZ 2-year featured rate 6.29% p.a. ANZ New Zealand
Standard variable index rate 7.05% p.a. (NZ), 8.64% p.a. (Aus) ANZ New Zealand, ANZ Australia
Recent 6-month rate adjustment +0.10% to 4.79% (Aug 2026) ANZ Newsroom
ANZ newsroom rate change date 5 August 2026 ANZ Newsroom
ANZ 18-month special fixed rate 5.45% p.a. ANZ New Zealand
ANZ 3-year special fixed rate 5.59% p.a. ANZ New Zealand

What is the ANZ current mortgage rate?

Current ANZ fixed rates (1yr, 2yr, 3yr, 5yr)

  • 6-month special fixed: 4.79% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom)
  • 1-year special fixed: 4.99% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom)
  • 18-month special fixed: 5.45% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom)
  • 2-year special fixed: 5.49% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom)
  • 3-year special fixed: 5.59% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom)

Current ANZ variable rates

  • Standard variable index rate (NZ): 7.05% p.a. (ANZ New Zealand)
  • Standard variable index rate (Australia): 8.64% p.a. (effective 15 May 2026) (ANZ Australia)
  • Variable rate discount: 1.20% p.a. for LVR ≤80% (ANZ New Zealand)

How to get the special rate

  • Requires a loan-to-value ratio (LVR) of 80% or less.
  • Automatic payment from an ANZ transaction account is mandatory.
  • Special rates are not available for investment properties or top-ups.
The catch

The special rate saves you up to 1.20% p.a. compared to the standard variable rate, but it locks you into ANZ’s automatic payment system. If you already bank with ANZ, that’s no extra hassle; if you don’t, you’ll need to switch.

The implication: ANZ’s short-term fixed rates remain competitive, especially the 1-year at 4.99%, but the 2-year special (5.49%) is only 0.50% higher than the 1-year, suggesting the market expects rates to stay elevated for at least two years.

If you are also shopping for car finance, check out our guide on the cheapest car finance offers in NZ.

Is a 2 year or 5 year fixed mortgage better right now?

Pros and cons of 2-year fixed

Upsides

  • Lower rate than longer terms: 5.49% special (2-year) vs 5.59% (3-year).
  • Flexibility to refinance after 2 years if rates drop.
  • Shorter commitment, less break-fee risk.

Downsides

  • If rates rise further, you’ll face higher payments sooner.
  • No certainty beyond 2 years.

Pros and cons of 5-year fixed

Upsides

  • Certainty: payments locked for 5 years regardless of market moves.
  • Peace of mind for budget-conscious borrowers.

Downsides

  • Higher initial rate than shorter terms.
  • If rates drop, you’ll miss out on savings unless you break the contract (incurring fees).

Current rate gap between 2-year and 5-year

Three fixed terms, one trade-off: the shorter the term, the lower the rate, but the higher the refinancing risk.

Term Special fixed rate Monthly repayments on $500k loan
1 year 4.99% $2,680
2 years 5.49% $2,815
5 years ~5.99% (est.) $3,000

Note: 5-year rate is estimated as ANZ does not publish a special rate for that term; standard rate may apply.

What experts say about locking in now

“These adjustments reflect the current market conditions and our commitment to responsible lending.”

— ANZ spokesperson, ANZ Newsroom

ANZ economists now expect the Reserve Bank to start hiking the OCR in July 2026, with three increases during the year, revising the year-end OCR to 3%.

— ANZ New Zealand Economics & Market Research, reported by Interest.co.nz

The trade-off

For a borrower who values certainty, the 5-year rate (est. ~5.99%) provides peace of mind but costs about $185 more per month than a 1-year fix. Over 5 years, that’s over $11,000 extra – a steep premium for stability.

Bottom line: The pattern: the flat yield curve suggests the market is pricing in rate cuts within 2 years, making the 2-year fixed a middle ground between affordability and flexibility. Longer terms only make sense if you believe rates will stay higher for longer than the market expects.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

Central bank outlook (RBNZ, RBA)

  • The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is currently 5.5% as set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
  • ANZ economists brought forward their forecast for the first OCR hike from February 2027 to December 2026 (ANZ Economics).
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% in August 2026 (RBA).

Inflation and economic indicators

  • ANZ reduced its house price inflation forecast for 2026 to 2% from 5% because of a higher outlook for interest rates (ANZ Economics).
  • Inflation remains above target in both NZ and Australia, keeping pressure on central banks.

ANZ forecast from recent news

  • ANZ economists expect the 1-year mortgage rate to be 5.2% by December 2026 and 5.5% by September 2027 (Opes Partners).
  • The 2-year mortgage rate is projected at 5.3% by December 2026 and 5.5% by September 2027 (Opes Partners).
  • ANZ’s own August 2026 increase to short-term rates signals that the bank sees upward pressure in the near term.
Bottom line: ANZ’s own economists see rates staying above 5% through 2026 and into 2027. For borrowers hoping for a quick drop to 4% or lower, the data suggests waiting until at least 2027.

The catch: the August 2026 rate increase is a clear signal that ANZ believes short-term rates need to rise further. If you need a mortgage now, locking in for 1 year at 4.99% may be the best bet – you can reassess when the rate matures.

Currency fluctuations can also affect mortgage costs; see our guide on the New Zealand Dollar to LKR rate.

What are the mortgage rates expected to be in the next five years?

Historical rate trends

  • 2020-2021: 3-year fixed rates hit 3.0% during the pandemic.
  • 2022-2024: rates surged to 6-7% as inflation took hold.
  • 2025-2026: rates stabilised around 5-6% for fixed terms.

Economist forecasts for 2027-2031

  • Most economists do not expect rates to return to 3% in the next five years (Interest.co.nz).
  • Long-term average for fixed rates is around 5-6% – a return to pre-pandemic normal.
  • ANZ projects 1-year rates at 5.5% by September 2027 (Opes Partners).

Factors that could lower rates

  • Sustained inflation below 2% would allow central banks to cut OCR.
  • A deep recession could force emergency rate cuts.
  • Global economic slowdown (e.g., China slowdown) could reduce demand and lower rates.
What to watch

The biggest wildcard is inflation. If it stays sticky, the OCR could remain at 5.5% or higher, keeping mortgage rates above 5% for years. If it collapses, rates could dip below 4% again – but that scenario is not in ANZ’s base case.

The trade-off: borrowers who fix for 5 years now at ~5.99% will pay a premium of about 1% per year compared to the projected 2027 rate, but they gain absolute certainty. For risk-averse homeowners, that premium may be worth the sleep-at-night factor.

Will mortgage rates drop to 3% again?

When were rates at 3%?

  • During the pandemic (2020-2021), the Reserve Bank cut the OCR to 0.25%, and banks offered 3-year fixed rates as low as 3.0%.
  • Those rates were a direct result of emergency monetary policy.

What would need to happen for 3% to return

  • The OCR would need to fall to around 1-2% – a level not seen since before the 2022 tightening cycle.
  • Inflation would need to be consistently below 2% for several quarters.
  • Economic growth would likely need to slump severely.

Current global economic conditions

  • Inflation is still above target in most developed economies, including New Zealand and Australia.
  • Central banks are cautious about cutting rates too soon.
  • ANZ economists expect the OCR to end 2026 at 3% – still a long way from 1%.
The paradox

The very conditions that would bring mortgage rates back to 3% – a deep recession and deflation – would also hurt house prices and employment. Borrowers who want 3% rates may not want the economy that comes with them.

The implication: unless the global economy takes a sharp downturn, 3% mortgage rates are unlikely to return in the next five years. The current ANZ forecast of 5.2% for a 1-year fix in December 2026 suggests that even modest declines are not expected soon.

Clarity check

Confirmed facts

  • ANZ current 1-year special rate is 4.99% p.a. (ANZ Newsroom)
  • ANZ 2-year featured rate is 6.29% p.a. (ANZ New Zealand)
  • ANZ raised rates in August 2026 (ANZ Newsroom)
  • ANZ economists expect OCR to reach 3% by end of 2026 (Interest.co.nz)

What’s unclear

  • Whether mortgage rates will drop to 3% again
  • Exact date of next ANZ rate change
  • Whether 2-year or 5-year fixed is better – depends on personal risk tolerance

Quotes from the experts

“These adjustments reflect the current market conditions and our commitment to responsible lending.”

— ANZ spokesperson, ANZ Newsroom

ANZ economists now expect the Reserve Bank to start hiking the OCR in July 2026, with three increases during the year, revising the year-end OCR to 3%.

— ANZ New Zealand Economics & Market Research, reported by Interest.co.nz

ANZ reduced its house price inflation forecast for 2026 to 2% from 5% because of a higher outlook for interest rates.

— ANZ New Zealand Economics & Market Research, ANZ Economics

ANZ projected the 1-year mortgage rate at 5.2% by December 2026 and 5.5% by September 2027.

— Opes Partners, citing ANZ forecasts, Opes Partners

For New Zealand homebuyers, the choice between locking in a 2-year fixed rate at 6.29% or waiting for potential cuts later in 2026 is a bet on inflation. Those who can afford the risk may prefer the flexibility of a shorter term; those who need certainty should consider the 5-year rate, even if it is higher today. The data from ANZ’s own economists points to rates staying above 5% through 2027, so the window for lower rates may not open until 2028 at the earliest.

Additional sources

mortgagerates.co.nz, anz.com.au, ratepal.co.nz, ceicdata.com, canstar.co.nz

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Frequently asked questions

Is 3.75% a good mortgage rate?

In the current market (2026), a rate of 3.75% would be well below the prevailing ANZ 1-year special of 4.99%. It is a very good rate, but it is not available from major banks now. Some smaller lenders or special promotions may offer rates near that level, but you would need to compare across the market.

Will mortgage rates ever be 4 again?

Based on ANZ’s own forecasts, the 1-year rate is projected to be 5.2% by December 2026 and 5.5% by September 2027, so a return to 4% is not in the near-term outlook. However, if inflation falls sharply and the OCR is cut, rates could dip below 5% later in 2027 or 2028.

What is the difference between ANZ special and standard rates?

Special rates are lower than standard rates and are available to borrowers who meet certain criteria: LVR ≤80% and automatic payment from an ANZ account. Standard rates are the default for those who do not qualify.

How often does ANZ change its mortgage rates?

ANZ reviews its rates regularly and can change them at any time in response to market conditions, funding costs, and central bank policy. The last change was on 5 August 2026.

Can I negotiate a lower rate with ANZ?

Yes, you can try. The special rate is already a discounted offer, but some borrowers have successfully negotiated a further discount, especially if they are large borrowers or have a strong relationship with the bank. It never hurts to ask.

What is the ANZ mortgage calculator used for?

ANZ’s online mortgage calculator helps you estimate your monthly repayments based on loan amount, interest rate, and term. It is a useful tool for comparing different loan scenarios.

Do ANZ rates differ between Australia and New Zealand?

Yes, ANZ operates in both countries with separate balance sheets and regulatory environments. For example, the standard variable index rate in Australia was 8.64% from May 2026, while in New Zealand it is 7.05%.

What is the current ANZ interest rate for savings accounts?

This article focuses on mortgage rates, but ANZ’s savings account rates are typically much lower than mortgage rates. You can check the latest savings rates on the ANZ website.